All odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Game 6
If it ain’t broke: While the Heat have been outplayed for the majority of this series, Bam Adebayo you have found success. In the first halves of Game 3 and Game 5, Adebayo made 13-of-20 shots while the rest of his teammates combined to shoot 39.2% from the field. Miami should rely heavily on Adebayo early and often in this must-win Game 6.
Findingcreation: Derrick White has averaged 5.5 assists and 11.5 potential assists over the past two games. His assist prop for Game 6 is at 3.5, so there is value to consider if he continues his pace as a distributor. Adebayo has averaged eight potential assists over the past two games for Miami and his assist prop from him sits at 2.5.
— Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Joe Fortenbaugh expects Jaylen Brown to come up with over 6.5 rebounds in Game 6.
Breaking Down Game 6
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
8:30 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston
Line: Celtics (-8.5)
moneyline: Celtics (-450), Heats (+350)
Total: 201 points
BPI Projected Total: 210.7 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (72.2%)
questionable: Tyler Herro (groin)
Ruled Out: None
Note: BPI numbers factor in players who are ruled out but assume questionable players will play
Remarkable: This season, teams favored by more than five points with an over/under less than 210 have won just over 68% of the time. That’s not a bad rate, but it is seven percentage points lower than the win rate of such favorites when the over/under is over 210 points.
Best bet: Celtics 2H (-3.5). The Heat are running on smokes and dealing with a myriad of injuries at the moment. While I respect their championship pedigree and culture, their injury luck is too much to look past against this particular Celtics team. I think Miami can keep it close for the first quarter or two, as they did at home in Game 5. But ultimately Boston’s healthier and deeper roster should overwhelm them in the second half, ending the series. The Celtics have outscored the Heat in 15 of the 20 quarters the two teams have played over the last five games of the series. –Tyler Fulghum
Bestbet: Robert Williams III over 15.5 points + rebounds. The Heat have had no answer for Robert Williams III as he dominated on defense in Game 5. Miami shot 0-for-11 on Wednesday when Williams contested a field goal attempt. I have played 27 minutes and had 6 points and 10 rebounds. There’s a chance Williams will have a double-double in Game 6 as the Celtics attempt to advance to face the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals. –Eric Moody.
Best bet: Celtics -8.5.
The Heat are dealing with several injuries and are on the ropes. The Celtics played very well in closeout games this postseason, sweeping the Nets in Brooklyn and winning two straight games over the Bucks to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. Boston should cover and wrap up this series at home. — Moody
I agree with Moody. The Celtics seem poised to close this series out tonight at home. They have been the dominant team for the majority of the series. Outside of the third quarter of Game 1 and the first quarter of Game 3, the Celtics have outscored the Heat by 87 points. When you factor in Miami’s injuries and the Celtics’ home-court advantage, it just feels like Boston should win this one comfortably. — Andre Snellings
Bestbet: Jaylene Brown over 33.5 points + assists + rebounds. Jayson Tatum is dealing with a shoulder injury, which puts Brown in a key position to perform tonight. He has averaged 25 PPG, 2.0 APG and 7.6 RPG in the Eastern Conference finals thus far. Brown (26.5%) has the second-highest usage rate on the team behind Tatum (30%) this postseason and should continue to exploit his matchups on the court. — Moody
Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 39.5 points + assists + rebounds. Tatum has gone over 39.5 PAR in six of his last nine games. His jumper from him is off, so he has driven hard to the rim and generated 16 free throw attempts. With Marcus Smart ailing in Game 5, Tatum created offense for his teammates by dishing nine assists. He has shown up in the biggest moments this postseason and tonight should go no differently. — snellings